Thursday, August 10, 2017

CPI Tomorrow: Matters For Bonds... And Stocks: Still Bullish

food prices cpi
Checked your prices? CPI out tomorrow.
CPI matters tomorrow. It matters if it finally moves up. It's been dragging slower and slower leaving bonds strong. We're bullish on bonds, stocks, and pretty much everything. But Elazar, the market's down today. We're here to tell you the stock market is allowed to be down.





CPI Tomorrow

Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Core CPI Mo-Mo 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Core PCE Mo-Mo 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

The Fed's most loved inflation measure is PCE Price. It's been slow. CPI reports tomorrow. It's been slow.

It's possible that oil being up month-to-month lifts the overall inflation figure but the core inflation number that excludes food and energy should be expected to be weak until it's not.

As long as inflation is low bonds stay strong.

Bonds Versus Stocks: Reallocation?

You have GDP picking up. The Atlanta Fed says Q3 is looking up 3.5%. That would be the fastest rate of economic growth since 2014. Things are good.

Bonds usually worry when the economy picks up. Two things though; One, investors are not optimistic about growth continuing.

Who holds bonds. Lots and lots of baby boomers.  Individual investor pessimism hit highs not seen since May. Why? Jobs are strong so it's not that. We think it's constant negative press reports. It's a perspective, a negative one. But perspective is reality only if you believe it.

Data, like GDP, jobs and earnings says otherwise.

The other reason other than pessimism that bonds are strong is low inflation. If inflation remains low bonds have even more reason to stay strong.

But... if inflation jumps investors probably get spooked at some point to sell their bonds.

Rates at record lows would be a risk to jump if inflation does creep back up into the picture.  Normally that would be negative for stocks.

This is big...

Here though if investors sell their bonds (on a high inflation number) as the economy and earnings are doing better, they could take all that cash and start getting less pessimistic on stocks.

A bound rout could cause a further stock rally. It's called reallocation. We haven't really seen it in a while but it's a big bold move where inflation could incite bonds lower but stocks... higher.

Keep that in mind tomorrow.

Conclusion

Low inflation, good for stocks and bonds.  High inflation bad for bonds and maybe amazing for stocks.

Reading Comprehension Time:
If the market is down in a given day it means
A) The market is done, finished, caput, nada, stick a fork in it, never ever going back up.
B) It's a sure sign it's the top.
C) A bear market has set in.
D) Not necessarily anything.
Please answer in comments, share and c'mon sign up for the free emails already.


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By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC, Happy and profitable trading!

Disclaimer: Stocks reported by Elazar Advisors, LLC are guided by our daily, weekly and monthly methodologies. We have a daily overlay which changes more frequently which is reported to our premium members and could differ from the above report. Portions of this report may have been issued in advance to subscribers or clients. All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. This article is for information purposes only. Ratings are based on hypothetical trade directions. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Elazar Advisors, LLC and their related parties harmless. Any trading strategy can lose money and any investor should understand the risks.

1 comment:

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