Tomorrow's Jobs Number Is A Stock Market Game Changer

picture with jobless claims
Non Farm Payrolls All That Matters
For Stock Market Tomorrow (And Maybe For The next Month)
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) last reported about a month ago on June 2nd. The number was disappointing and may be the reason the stock market took a breather from hitting new highs ever since.

Market New Highs Stalled Thanks To Jobs

The S&P 500 ETF SPY closed at 244.17 that day June 2nd, meanwhile the high for the year was 245.01 which was touched on June 9th only to close lower at 243.41.

Tomorrow's Jobs Number Matters Big Time

Who cares right? We think it's telling. The market could not climb higher because the most critical economic data that affects markets missed expectations. That pulled confidence from stock market investors.

The street is expecting 179,00 for tomorrow's NFP versus last month's disappointing 138,000. If the street is right or surprised on the upside, we think this market has the ability to launch into new highs in the near term.

If jobs disappoint tomorrow, we may not have the near term driver for stocks.

Earnings To Save The Day

Above we said that jobs were the most important economic indicator to stocks. Earnings are the most important out of any indicators however.

Earnings season is coming. Q1 was the best in almost 6 years according to Factset.

The Semiconductor Industry Association also said growth in May was the strongest in almost 7 years.

Let's Wrap It Up

Earnings ultimately are the reason we're all here talking stocks. Earnings are the main driver to stock valuations.  If they keep moving up we're doing fine and can help us look through the jobs numbers. We'll start to hear about earnings in the next few weeks.  If jobs surprise or disappoint though that's probably the near term driver to stocks.

By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC

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