Wednesday, July 12, 2017

SPY ETF, Gold ETF, Bonds, US Dollar: Elazar, Please Help Me Make Some Money Today


fed janet yellen testimony
Ahh Mrs Janet Yellen Speaking
For Several Hours Today. Life Is Good.


Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to Congress today. We ALL know what she's going to talk about, higher short term rates and reducing her $4T bond and mortgage portfolio. 





S&P 500 spy etf
C'mon, How Beautiful
Everybody's worried and the shorts are all over this story. But... we all know this already. So she says it. Ok, and? We know already.
We think that's the reason"very bearish" testimony about hawkish monetary policy will be a short squeeze rally.
And look at that chart above. The lows are hugging that uptrend created since the election. It's beautiful, no? Any squeeze today or tomorrow will get SPY to go topside of that itsy bitsy downtrend above the chart.
We also had a short term buy signal in the S&P 500 Index ETF SPY late in the day yesterday. We think the market, after a strong jobs number has the ability to go higher. 
Amazing Elazar, you think the market can actually go above the old highs. 
Definitely, it's only 1-2% away. What's the big deal about that. Nothing really changed from all those other new highs except
1) Better jobs report last Friday versus the previous month's disappointment
2) Earnings season starts Friday and, if it's like first quarter it will again be a great growth performance. 
Stocks ARE earnings. If quarterly results are good stocks are good. All these other indicators are nice, but if earnings are going higher then put all recession fears, rate fears, and other fears on the side. 
All those fears are warnings to worry about earnings. Hey, if earnings are good that's the main indicator then the rest is noise compared to earnings. Let's not get sidetracked.
Steeper Yield Curve To Let Cap Of This Tech Boom Bull Market
Fed Governor Brainard is backing off rate hikes. That's important too. if you have less short term hikes and more long term rate hikes in the form of less Fed bond buying you are going toSubscribe to www.elazarllc.com by Email have a steeper yield curve
Bears are all worried about a steeper yield curve but we think it's going to absolutely let the cap off this bull market to go higher.
Elazar, how? How can you say such a thing, rates are bad.

Normally a jump in rates are associated with down markets but let's think about it. Earnings are going which way? Up. Great. That should drive what? Stocks. Great....
Now you own boring old bonds paying you peanuts and they start to lose you money (5-10% or more).
While your bonds are losing you money all your friends are so excited about NVIDIA and Facebook's next earnings report making money hand-over-fist.
Please tell me what you are going to do? (Say in comments please)
You are absolutely going to chuck your low-paying-boring-ol-bonds and buy into this stock market technology stock tech boom.
That's why a steeper yield curve can let the cap off of this stock market to go higher.
And we think that can all start today with bearish-ol Yellen talking hawkish as stocks go up anyway. Anyway bonds don't go down so much with so many baby boomers not letting go.
It's all (good) bullish.
GOLD ETF: WE HATE IT
gold etf gld chart
Great Gold News (Bad Trump News) And Gold Not Budging. Not Good.
Sorry Gold Bugs betting against Trump but we hate gold short term. We love gold (who doesn't love some gold). But short term the gold ETF is in danger.
Low low low inflation at .0000% and a tight Fed policy is very bad for gold. Tight policy stamps out inflation which is already low. That's not good for gold.
And that's exactly what Fed Chair Yellen is going to remind everybody today.
There's a CPI number out on Friday so maybe it gets better but with oil down last month, the bias is lower for CPI.
PS You want to see amazing action. Look at the gold ETF the last few days on terrible terrible Trump news. They caught him, it's all over, finished, right? Gold flat. That's terrible action in gold telling you "great" gold news can't get gold to go up.

PS really all that Trump news is getting boring. The media needs to find something else to talk about. Jared, no Ivanka, no Bannon. Boring. C'mon, next.
BONDS: BULLISH
20 year tlt chart
Oh so sweet, that support.
We think with all the scare talk from Gundlach and crew, bonds aren't budging.
There are way too many baby boomers raking in the couple of percent and they are not letting go.
We also have a big support here in bonds (totally proprietary Elazar quant model) so we like it now as of Sunday.
(Full Disclosure: We are very finicky and our call(s) can change at a drop of a dime.
US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL
us dollar etf chart
Nothing funny to see here.
Foreigners are very worried about President Trump but we think it can't get worse. Teflon Don. He's doing fine after all the drubbing. We think that means he's going to be here for four years and maybe (after all that and still standing) eight years.
That may be good or bad for the dollar but we are bullish with low inflation, a better economy and too many dollar bears.
That said, it's a falling knife so we need this ETF UUP to close above 14.9.
And sorry we couldn't find anything funny to say here.
Let's Wrap it Up
You're the best. Pay attention to the small fraction of the news that's going to make you money. The rest, dump. But not only market news matters, the reaction to the news tells you just as much if not more. That's "action." Gold, bad action. Markets good action. Bonds, great action. Where action is concerned bad is the new good. Good is the new bad. Have a great day of trading!

By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC 

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1 comment:

  1. i think the market broke through that 'itsy bitsy' downtrend we wrote above.

    ReplyDelete

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