Wednesday, July 26, 2017

CNBC, "Significant Correction," Elazar "Still Bullish"

cnbc bearish elazar
Who doesn't love CNBC. But they are
still a little too bearish.
CNBC had a report out yesterday titled, "Wall Street bracing for 'significant correction': Survey." We combed through that report but we didn't see people so dour in their article. We think the media is still pretty "bear-ed" up but investors are starting to wise up. That unwinding of bearishness can continue to send the stock market higher.


CNBC, We Love You, But People Aren't As Bear-ed Up As You Wrote In That Article

CNBC, we read your report a couple of times.  Please show us in that article where it says that the people surveyed expect a "significant correction." We saw one guy in there expecting "a significant correction" but where was that survey. One economist at Moody's ok. Survey of one?

If anything you said, "Half of the group [surveyed] believe the stock market is "too optimistic" about the chances of policy."  Ok but that's not expecting an all-out correction.

In fact you said, "On average, the group sees muted gains for the S&P 500, with a rise of just less than 1 percent to 2,493 by year-end."

You responded to that up 1% by saying "Despite such bearish sentiment..."

Bearish is expecting a crash we agree. But expecting up markets isn't so bearish.

CNBC, I think you are still a touch too bearish. Markets are going higher. You've been invited. Shake those bearish blues off and enjoy. It's fun to be a bull.

Bearishness, If Anything Is Unwinding Helping The Stock Market Go Higher

Calling out bearishness when there isn't is a sign that bearish cobwebs are still in the markets.

We pointed out yesterday that the stock market can lift after the FOMC announcement today at 2PM because individual investors are also starting to become less bearish. They aren't yet bullish so there is still much further to go.

We wrote yesterday that when investors slowly become bullish they wait for key catalyst events to pass before they tip-toe into the market.  That's why we said that today's no-news Fed meeting can easily be that catalyst for the stock market to go higher.

You May Love Trump, But He's Not The Only Reason This Market's Up

The CNBC report we cited above and its survey participants seemed to think that the market is up on a Trump "bubble."

There are other drivers to stocks besides Trump. (There are?)

One driver: Maybe earnings?

Earnings are the most important driver to stocks and they had their best quarter in almost six years in Q1 (Factset). The second quarter earnings season has just as much potential with a lower US dollar helping multi-nationals and continued global growth.

The other driver: Jobs?

Jobs picked up in the recent non-farm payrolls report. We wrote then that the stock market should move up because of that. The month before had a weak jobs report and stocks went nowhere.

Sure enough the stock market hit new highs soon after that strong jobs report.

President Trump, we love you too but the market medium-or-longer term really really only cares about earnings and jobs.

While we love you President Trump and you're the center of attention we want people to focus on earnings when investing in the stock market. That's what really really matters. Hope you don't mind.

Elazar Wrap It Up For Me: Make Me Some Money

There are still plenty of bears but they are unwinding their skepticism. It's a process. We aren't at euphoric, everyone's in, UBER-cabbie, lawnmower stock picker, peak type stories. The economy and earnings after ten boring years are only just starting to pick up. Consider being more optimistic about the future, it's healthy and fun.

By: Chaim Siegel, Elazar Advisors, LLC, Happy and profitable trading! Mystery question?

The "Elazar Appreciation Day" proposal is hitting Congress for a vote. Make your vote count by sharing this Elazar report today.*

Ok, ok, we admit, you can spend an hour a day reading lots of stuff, or you can spend
three minutes on Elazar a day, get exactly the one thing that matters, make money,
and get a smile on your face for the rest of the day.
Free smile sign up here...


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Picture Credit: not a joke.

9 comments:

  1. How many votes do I get?
    Well- here is #1 for Elazar appreciation day...every day.
    You always are a wonderful happy read for me.
    Thank You :)) Rose

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    Replies
    1. Rose is that really you it says Anonymous. I'll take you're word for it. Did you get the question right?
      you get as many votes as you want. before it goes to Trump for signing you need to dive into the swamp. Fed day today. market's going up. (hopefully right?).

      Rose, as always you are the absolute best!

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  2. I never forget that the agenda of the leftist media "slants" everything to support their agenda. So, yes this is CNBC (a clearly leftist network). Negative on market equals negative on Trump- to them. Unfortunately, biz news can be tainted by political agendas.
    That is where I look - especially when anything defies logic and rationality.
    I watch NBR every night (produced by CNBC) which is probably the least tainted by politics other than Fox Biz- but I do not have or want cable. But NBR has John Harwood on there every night. During campaign, Harwoood sent emails "advising" the Clinton campaign which IMO disqualifies him from journalism.

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    Replies
    1. Chancer, wow. you have serious points. I think politics needs to be out of investment decisions. it can only hurt. Trump haters are keeping people out of the market which is good for anybody who wants to be in the market thinking things are ok. come on in the waters fiiine.

      thanks for the feedback. all i read is these posts by elazar. love those guys.

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    2. Chaim:
      When I grew up, those in jobs of trust: journalist, judge, teacher/professor, civil servant, had ethical standards, that required a neutral political attitude in the performance of their professions. With the leftist takeover of the education system, that no longer exists. Now, the snowflakes are taught that exercising your leftist political agenda in your profession is a "sacred duty" to the "cause"; and those who do not line up are therefore "abnormal" to be shunned. The left claims how harmful the Russian thing is too our democracy. It is a far greater danger that 90% of journalists, educators (teachers/professors), civil servants, and 75% of judiciary are leftist liberal Democrats dedicated to the cause of using their profession to support their political agenda. That is the "deep state" and the real threat to the Democracy. That is how we got Lois Lerner and the DC judiciary that would not prosecute her for contempt; and all the over reach from Obama and Holder including diveting fines/penalties from banks and biz into Democrat leftist organizations instead of to the US Treasury to benefit all citizens.

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    3. Chancer, The US had enough of political correctness so they voted for Trump. he is as anti-politically correct as you get which is a left side standing. His team Kushner, Bannon spotted that opening, they targeted it and won.

      we have to keep opinion polls in perspective too, surveys like the one above. who's giving them and who's answering them, like u point out.

      we all should try and stay center not politically, but mentally to try to see the market w/out shading.

      thx for your great notes.

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    4. i think we got into this PC discussion before the latest latest Trump news. :-0

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  3. Replies
    1. it changes daily but the real deal is that it doesnt help you earn money. markets went up on this 'bad' news already, next. media's making a killing on it but its keeping people out of this bull market. its opportunity cost noise that the media has trained people to listen to. how many people watch the news expecting that its going to help them make money. wasnt that the proposition. now financial news has turned into a political soap opera, they went off top of how to make money. sorry elazar rant

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