Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Stock Market Mentoring

Free Stock Market Mentoring 

We wanted to use this page and the comments section below to interact with you.

We don't want to focus on direction.

We do want to focus on background, understanding and process.

Please ask us anything in comments or the Questions?-tab to the right related to background, understanding and process in trading, analysis, portfolio management, jobs, whatever. 

We'll do our best to respond in a timely fashion. If you used the Questions?-tab we'll respond here anonymously unless you say otherwise and give you our best answer.

Here's an introduction that we've said in other forums,

"I would like to give my thoughts about asking questions. As an analyst and portfolio manager for $100mm-$1B funds I would meet with the largest companies we've all heard of in a crowded room full of really smart analysts. Who cares, right? If I had a question for the company I asked it even if to some it sounded like the dumbest question in the world. If I don't understand something how am I going to have a good opinion on this company. I made it a rule never never be afraid to ask a question even if you think it's dumb. The real deal is that everybody wanted to know the same thing but were too chicken to ask thinking everybody knew it already. After the meeting when I had the guts to ask anyway, everybody came up to me saying, great question Chaim. 

So if you have any questions about us, investing, life, global warming (well not that), anything, please ask us. We know we can help you (at least a little bit) get to where you want to go." 

Chaim Siegel, founder of Elazar Advisors, LLC 

(And if your first questions was how to pronounce Chaim. It's like "L'Hayim!")

Disclaimer: Securities reported by Elazar Advisors, LLC are guided by our daily, weekly and monthly methodologies. We have a daily overlay which changes more frequently which is reported to our premium members and could differ from the above report. Portions of this report may have been issued in advance to subscribers or clients. All investments have many risks and can lose principal in the short and long term. This article is for information purposes only. By reading this you agree, understand and accept that you take upon yourself all responsibility for all of your investment decisions and to do your own work and hold Elazar Advisors, LLC and their related parties harmless. Any trading strategy can lose money and any investor should understand the risks. #in, $spy, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, CME Globex: ES


  1. Question: Thughes9
    I am trying to find a correlation of fed rate hikes and bond prices. I trade the 30 year treasury bond and the 10 year treasury note. Looking at the last two rate hikes in Dec and March, the daily charts showed a distinct down trend for at least 3 weeks before the hike. Then on the day of the hike, price started trending up and stayed in that trend for at least three weeks. I think we will have another rate hike next week and this time, price of these debt instruments have just started an indication of going down the last several days. I suspect they will continue down until the actual hike if past performance is any indication of future prices. What I do not understand is the logic of price going up after last two rate hikes. Why would price go up if rate is clearly up. That seems to me that it should force price down??????
    Answer: Chaim Siegel
    Hi. You have short term rates and you have long term rates.

    The fed changing Fed Funds rates is short term rates.

    Long term rates are decided by the marketplace with a caveat. The fed bought $4T in bonds.

    Whats amazing as we’ve been saying is that despite the Fed saying they are going to exit many of those longer term bonds bonds went up. That’s pretty nuts. People are scared and still want risk-free assets. Foreign investors have near-zero rates so are buying bonds here.

    What affects the price of long term rates is expectations of growth and inflation. If there is going to be more of both or either then you need higher yields to convince traders to stay in those bonds because otherwise they can find better returns elsewhere. That’s what hits bonds.

    Now to bring it all together:

    As the fed raises short term rates the market is saying we don’t have faith the economy or inflation will pick up in the future so we are buying long term bonds.

    Really the fed sending short term rates up SHOULD lower longer term rates. That’s their intention.

    We think though that growth is picking up and at some point bonds will trade down.

    But that’s the story. Any follow up questions let me know.

  2. We were asked: Do you ever look at the CFTC "Traders in Financial Futures" for the portfolio you manage?

    Chaim Siegel of Elazar said, "I look at it. I look at managed money or speculative positions and use it as a contrary indicator in a certain case.
    for example

    If gold drops and bulls go up, i would guess it has more to drop.
    if gold drops and bears go up, thats healthy and closer to a bottom.
    and vice versa.its not THE indicator. its the way i use the indicator in combination w/ a lot of other stuff.


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