Friday, January 20, 2017

We Love Stocks In 2018

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*Monetary policy hasn't sparked the economy, yet.

*Fiscal policy may not spark things at least initially.

*Starting in 2018 and beyond we expect demographics to help drive markets higher.

*That timing may not be too bad for PE Trump's re-election aspirations.

Since the 1970s, GDP has been in a downward trajectory. GDP2%-3% GDP growth is probably another peak in that longer term trend. We worry that if the Fed emptied out all they could and didn't drive a pickup, fiscal policy could meet the same ends. We think the main factor is demographics which hits a low next year. Until then we think there is a downward bias to markets (NYSEARCA:SPY) this year. But we love 2018.
GDP And Markets Go Together
Source: St Louis Fed

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