Thursday, January 5, 2017

Upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls Report Could Miss Street Estimates: Risk To Markets

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ADP came out well below the street estimates for nonfarm payrolls.

Jobs are the key economic measure. While everybody expects a pickup, jobs look like they are slowing.

Jobs slowed after last year's rate hike. A repeat would be a greater market risk this time because we are starting from a lower base.

ADP and jobless claims came out today. ADP at 153,000 matched our expectations of 151,300 from Sunday but are well below the street's 170,000 for nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Jobless claims improved today. We still expect a miss in jobs tomorrow but probably not as bad as ADP expects. Slowing jobs portend a slowing economy which is a market risk (NYSEARCA:SPY).
ADP 153,000
Source: ADP

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