Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Thursday's Jobless Claims Could Mean NFP Estimates Way Off, Market Risk

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*Jobless claims jumped last week. If the trend continues non-farm payrolls should drop in December much bigger than street estimates.

*Jobs are the lifeblood of the economy and should be central in focus to help determine direction.

*The Fed has said we are at "full employment" so the risk is that we go the other way. That would be a market risk.

Weekly jobless claims report 8:30 tomorrow morning. Non-farm payrolls report January 6th. We've shown many times that the four-week moving average of jobless claims inversely predicts non-farm payrolls ("NFP"). NFP is probably the most important economic statistic the Fed uses and markets use to determine economic health. Jobless claims have been in a steady decline for seven years. Any reversal could build to be a core market risk.
Recent Jobless Claims Look Worse.
Source: Trading Economics

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