Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Thursday's Jobless Claims Are Important

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The current pace of weekly jobless claims hints to a slowing non-farm payrolls number for December.

The first rate hike in a decade saw NFP slow materially. The second rate hike was in the midst of jobs already slowing but this time from a lower level.

Federal Reserve hikes expected for 2017 increased thanks to the risk of inflation. Inflation and slowing jobs are a negative combination for markets.


The four week trend of weekly jobless claims predicts non-farm payrolls ("NFP"). The current pace of jobless claims implies a slowdown in NFP for December. That would be worrisome in the face of rate hikes. Thursday's update in jobless claims increases in importance for markets.
Jobless Claims Implies A Slower NFP
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