Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Will Be Strong

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*Jobless claims reported strength for three weeks in a row.
*Movement's in jobless claims inversely predicts movements in the Fed's all-important non-farm payrolls report.
*The Fed has admitted in Fed speak that they are behind the curve. Strong jobs are good for the market but also cause the need for more rate hikes.

Jobless claims were down of late which implies a strong economy. Last week's report hit a record not seen since 1973. Jobs are picking up. What really matters is the non-farm payrolls ("NFP") report next Friday. Based on jobless claims we'd expect an upside surprise next Friday. That will confirm the need for a rate hike. We think the Fed will ultimately have to raise their rate forecasts for next year. That can hinder markets.

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