Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Undecided Voters And Recount Wild Card To Stock Market

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*Two wild cards remain for the elections; undecided voters and a recount.
*The market jumped yesterday on positive news for Hillary Clinton.
*The market wants Clinton, but the elections aren't over.
*Both of these two wild cards are a risk to markets, but don't appear to be a big risk.
*A Clinton win would probably take us close to all-time highs, but potentially be a peak for 2016.

The stock market (SPYIWMQQQ) jumped on Monday after the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton of charges for mishandling confidential information. The market proved in the last week it clearly prefers Clinton. When Trump jumped in the polls, the market hit a record losing streak. There are two election risks left to markets, undecided voters and a recount.
The Market Wants Clinton
Since the FBI reopened the email case against Clinton, the market went into a record losing streak. Yesterday, after the case was closed again, the market jumped.
Source: Interactive Brokers
We show intraday action above because the letter James Comey sent to Congress surfaced mid-day. As soon as news spread, the market dropped and continued until the decision was reversed this weekend. When the FBI reclosed the case, the market jumped.
It's clear from the moves the stock market prefers Hillary Clinton.
What Election Wild Cards Are Left
Independent and Undecided Voters
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