Thursday, November 17, 2016

All Bear-Ed Up

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*The Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking today and after two months of Elazar bullishness, we're getting bearish now.
*Uncertainty is not a friend to markets and we are going into a peak period of uncertainty.
*We're pretty "bear-ed up".
*Bring your popcorn today at 10 am.

We're pretty "bear-ed up." We are about to go into a historic amount of global change. After the short squeeze rally ("Trump Rally") which we called for 9:32 am after election day, we went to the sidelines the next day. The market rally right now is price and momentum-driven. That said, fundamentals are about to enter a period of uncertainty of historic proportions. Who would disagree with that one? Markets hate uncertainty. Uncertainty means volatility. Hold on to your hats.
We've been pretty bullish of late.
Source: Interactive Brokers
Above we show a chart where we were making both fundamental and technical market calls. The market looked pretty good to us.
We called "Stock Market Should Launch After Elections." We said in that piece, "We expect the market to lift and maybe launch, potentially on either candidate winning."
That was October 27th while the market was still going down. Along the way, we liked the FOMC and inflation news.
Thereafter, we saw a "Face Ripping Clinton Rally" coming and when Trump won, we coined it the "Trump Rally," which the Street has also called it. We called it at 9:32 while the market was still down that day after elections. Thereafter, we felt the move was a major short squeeze brought on by a huge fear trade overnight that had to unwind. That took us to where we are today.
The unwinding of that fear trade though could initiate a rally and momentum. But we don't expect it to continue.
There is way too much fundamental uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty.
That's why we quickly moved to the "Sidelines" saying we are evaluating our next move.
We've evaluated and think there is major fundamental upheaval to come. Even if investors don't believe that much of President-elect Donald Trump's plans will pass, the rhetoric alone can move markets.

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