Monday, September 5, 2016

Oil: Warming Up, $40 Floor With Potential OPEC And Russian Agreement

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We wrote August 30th, "Until we see it close above $49.50 for now, we'd be on the sidelines." As oil (NYSEARCA:USO)(NYSEARCA:OIL)(NYSEARCA:UWTI) dropped we hear Saudi Arabia and Russia in support of a production freeze. We pointed out August 30th that $40 was a floor. As oil approaches $40 OPEC nations seem to come out to jawbone oil higher. That continues to tell us the downside may be limited. We lower our confirmation breakout point to $47 for now.

In The Last Week Major Oil Players Align
Russia-Saudi Arabia
*At G20 Russia came to an agreement today with Saudi Arabia to help steady oil prices. That is important because Russia may act as a bridge between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The two Middle East nations have been at opposite sides in wars in Yemen and Syria. That may have hurt their desire to agree on OPEC limits. Russia has been fighting on the side of Iran in Syria. Russia can bring these two warring nations to agree on oil.
*Russian President Vladimir Putin also said recently he would support an OPEC deal. That was a change from a previous official that said Russia would not support a deal. As oil drops, more are aligning with a potential freeze.
President Putin told Bloomberg,
"I would very much like to hope that every participant of this market that's interested in maintaining stable and fair global energy prices will in the end make the necessary decision."

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