Monday, September 5, 2016

Even If They Still Hike, Don't Worry- It Will Be OK

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*The jobs report has us waiting for Fed guidance.
*The easy call is no rate hike, but the Fed geared up for a hike and still has reason to go through with it.
*Outside of the Fed, Donald Trump took the lead after the market's close on Friday.

The big news last week was the under-performance of the well anticipated non-farm payrolls. This week we need to listen for some Fed direction to see if there is still a chance for a rate hike. According to Fed Vice-Chair Fischer there could still be. If there is any hike talk we'd expect weak markets (NYSEARCA:SPY). We also review Trump's poll surge and other market drivers this week.
Key Events For This Week
Sept 2: Non Farm Payrolls Miss
Sept 2 AMC: Donald Trump catches Hillary Clinton in the polls
Monday, Sept 5: Labor Day
Thursday, Sept 8: Jobless Claims
Non Farm Payrolls Miss
Non Farm Payrolls ("NFP") reported 151,000. That was a material slowdown from the recent pace of the last two numbers.
Here's the chart.
What's a little more troubling is if we zoom out on the NFP report. Let's look.
Source: Trading Economics With Elazar's trendlines

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