Thursday, August 4, 2016

We Expect A Miss In The Jobs Number Friday

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*Jobless claims have shown a slowing economy the last two weeks.
*ADP reported similar numbers for three months.
*Expectations in non-farm payrolls are for a pickup Friday. We think that could disappoint.
*A month ago non-farm payrolls broke stocks out. Since then GDP was weak. Tomorrow will be key.


Non-farm payroll numbers report Friday. Thursday we had ADP and the weekly jobless claims reports. Putting it all together would have us expect a weaker number tomorrow as we'll show you. The non-farm payrolls and GDP are the two most important Fed measures in determining economic health. We expect it to have stock market implications (NYSEARCA:SPY).
First jobless claims
Here's the trend in jobless claims (Lower is a stronger economy.)
You can see the last two weeks picked up off the near historic lows in the previous three weeks.
Jobless claims report weekly. We want to see if it has any indication for tomorrow's month of non-farm payrolls. Here's how this month's average compares to last month's average.



Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS