Monday, August 29, 2016

$TLT Breaking 138 Risk To Give Back Brexit move

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The TLT chart is threatening to break down.
The easing story launched a breakout.
With Fed Chair Yellen on board to hike rates, the near-term story may have changed for TLT.
Fed comments hint toward Friday's job numbers, which could drive a rate hike.

The global easing story to save markets from Brexit was what launched bonds and bond ETF TLT. Now that Fed officials, including Fed Chair Yellen, appear to be aligned for a rate hike, the support for TLT may have withered.
Brexit Launched A TLT Breakout
Let's first look at a chart of TLT to get a sense of what caused it to trade up to current prices.
Above, you see Brexit caused TLT to launch higher and break out. Since then, TLT has pretty much moved sideways. The story that launched TLT was that multiple central banks would come to the market's rescue with bond-buying programs.
For now, that easing story has just changed, with Fed Chair Yellen confirming Friday there's a chance for a hike in September.
Yellen said Friday, "I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."
The previous two weeks saw Fed Vice Chair Fischer also hint to a rate hike in the near term. He said last Sunday, "So we are close to our targets. Not only that, the behavior of employment has been remarkably resilient."
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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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