Monday, August 8, 2016

S&P 500 Weekly: Everybody Selling But Market Still Goes Up

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*We have to see how the great jobs number plays out.
*We remain bearish and would short breaking Friday's lows which would mean something matters more than the jobs number.
*We still don't know what the Fed wants to do with this number.
*We think QE peaking near-term is more important.
*Yen, oil and bonds are all gearing up to be negative catalysts.
*The jobs number showed strong results and picked up from last quarter. 
There is momentum in the market. The only way to short is on a break. We don't want to get long based on the mounds of risks piling up.
Here's the market (NYSEARCA:SPY) chart post jobs.
The market showed a nice breakout of a consolidation. This is a bullish technical formation. That's why we don't want to just short it. There are too many fundamental factors that are not allowing us to buy into the move. For that reason we're waiting until the market closes below Friday's low to want to short. If it goes up in a straight line to infinity from here, we missed it. Given the risks, we're ok with that.
For those bullish, we don't see a problem saying as long as the market holds above Friday's high stay bullish. But we are not bullish so we are using a low as a confirmation of down stocks.
Key Risks We're Watching:
The Bond Market

Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS