Friday, August 26, 2016

Last Minute Economic Data Fresh On Yellen's Mind To Confirm A Hike

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*Jobless claims reported a stronger number.
*The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now expectation is still looking for an acceleration for Q3.
*The jobless claims will be fresh on the minds of the Fed reminding them about the non-farm payrolls surge.

Since the last non-farm payrolls number there hasn't been much important economic data to change the Fed opinion from thinking the economy is heating up. Today the heavily watched Atlanta Fed updated expectations for Q3 GDP of 3.4%. While it was a tick down it is still much faster than Q2's 1.2%. Today's data should be fresh on the mind of Fed participants tomorrow and can confirm some of the recent calls for higher rates.
Jobless claims reported a strong number today.
We think the numbers carry some importance into tomorrow.
Here's the data.
The last three weeks showed a stronger report. Less people filed for jobless insurance.
Here's the longer term chart for perspective. This weighs on Fed's opinion that we are at full employment.
The recent pick up was just a blip in a strong down trend. This down trend of less people unemployed is a strong economic indicator. Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer said we are at full employment on Sunday. This jobless claims report reiterates that thinking.



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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS