Thursday, July 28, 2016

What Michael Jackson, The WSJ And The Fed Have In Common

See Full Report

*We (over)analyze the post-Fed WSJ article to see that the Fed ho hum has not changed much in the last few months.
*If the Fed leaked a plant to the WSJ July 19th, they downshifted to a slower tone last night at 1:30am.
*Why does Michael Jackson, The WSJ and The Fed all feel like "somebody's watching me".
*Because we are.
*After our professional stock-market analysis we want to go deeper into Michael Jackson's prophetic lyrics.
Because Fed Chair Yellen doesn't say much between meetings we are forced to think that the "mouthpiece of the Fed" the Wall Street Journal ("WSJ") is speaking for the Fed. We're forced to watch every nuance not only of Fed statements but also the WSJ reports and reactions to try to glean something (something at all). But our bottom-line is not much has changed. We are siding with the camp that says there will be no rate hikes ever until inflation spikes (which we expect.)
First the Answer To Our Title (We'll save the suspense.)
We'll give you the title answer up front so you can decide if you need the analysis. What do Michael Jackson, The WSJ, and The Fed all have in common?
They're all singing, "I always feel like somebody's watching me."
Just like the Fed we feel it is critically important to track the WSJ for hints on Fed leaks.
At the end of our report, as an added bonus we're going to go deeper into Michael Jackson's lyrics to see if we can discover any prophetic meaning for markets (NYSEARCA:SPY). Just like we really are watching the Fed and the WSJ, we don't want Mr. Jackson to remain "paranoid." Therefore we really want to do the same time of deep analysis that we offer for the Fed and the WSJ.
Let's take care of some business first.
Yesterday we dissected the Fed's statement. Today we shift our focus to the WSJ.
Let's go step by step through the WSJ article July 28th at 1:39 AM (We don't think they peeked at or cared about our post-Fed call on July 27th at 7:40 PM.)
"Possible Not Certain"
The WSJ wrote early this morning, "By saying risks have diminished, it appeared to be indicating a rate increase is possible, though not certain, in the months ahead."
Hmm, "possible, though not certain."
What did the WSJ write earlier in the month?
Jun 19th the WSJ said, "Fed Officials Gain Confidence They Can Raise rates...as early as September."
Which is stronger? Possible not certain -or- Gains confidence as early as September?
The words in today's WSJ article imply a much slower outlook than the July 19th article. Yet in that same time we only saw strong jobless claims numbers. What changed? Our only guess is the upcoming Friday GDP number as we wrote last night.



Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS