Sunday, July 3, 2016

Weekly S&P 500 Catalysts And Direction

See Full Report
We are neutral this week waiting for a better setup to get short.
Although negative catalysts build the bounce off the recent lows needs to work itself out.
We see the market capped on the upside and the risk/reward is not good for buying.
That said, because of the market momentum, shorting is not clear either.
(Picture: To start the week Elazar's been benched. We expect to get some "at bats" later in the week or next week.)
Since we've been giving our weekly market direction our calls are up 2.4% in 7 weeks. Here's the results.
Tue, Jul 5, 16SPYNeutral
Mon, Jun 27, 16SPYDownPerf+2.4%In 7 wks
Mon, Jun 20, 16SPYDownPerf+6.5%In 6 wks
Mon, Jun 13, 16SPYDownPerf+3.83%In 5 wks
Mon, Jun 6, 16SPYDownPerf+2.47%In 4 wks
Tue, May 31, 16SPYDownPerf+2.18%In 3 wks
Mon, May 23, 16SPYUpPerf+2.04%In 2 wks
Mon, May 16, 16SPYDownPerf-0.26%1st Wk

We called for downside into and following Brexit but the market took a big bounce off the Monday low. There was follow through all week last week.
Our best guess this week
We think the market could have an upward bias this week early on.
The market likely needs to work out some buying follow through. What we mean is as long as the market (NYSEARCA:SPY) can stay around 208-210 or even higher, we think that will set up for a good short the following week. Then we'd have fundamentals and technicals aligned.
See Full Report

Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment here: