Wednesday, July 20, 2016

This Is The Risk To Our Bear Case In Oil

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*We've been showing that production globally is increasing (OPEC and US).
*We've been expecting that post-Brexit growth will slow. Supply demand is not favorable.
*The risk to this setup is war which is percolating and needs watching.

We've shown in recent reports that OPEC and Saudi Arabia ("KSA") have been increasing oil (NYSEARCA:USO) (NYSEARCA:OIL) (NYSEARCA:UWTI) production. The weak oil price is forcing countries to produce more to make up for the lower price. US production is the highest in years. The global demand is ticking slower. All that said, war words have picked up globally and would be one major chink to the bear case armor.
As a quick review let's see OPEC and US production picking up.
Here're OPEC and KSA picking up production last month.
AprilMayJune
Iran345735673644
KSA101601024210308
Total OPEC326203259432858

This pickup in production looks like the highest production in a couple of years (Page 62).
Let's go to the US oil supply/demand picture.


Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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