Friday, July 22, 2016

Pointing Out A Teensy Weensy Bearish Change In The Market

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*We've been showing intraday health for two months.
*It helps us to know if the market has the ability to agree with our weekly or medium term calls.
*We've been unimpressed with every day except jobs day, July 8th.
*That is, until today, which we will show you leans bearish again.
We have a simple six step strategy to know if the market is going to allow us to be bearish or if we're fighting an uphill battle. We definitely wanted towatchout with the breakout. You can't sit there and get run over. But every day we have been looking for a bull confirmation and we got none. The last few days though are showing that there is weakness in the market. We think it's safe to test the waters on the short side once again.
To be clear we give a weekly call over the weekend. We give a lot of intraweek commentary on our medium term fundamental take. That said we like the market to show us that it agrees with us. We could try and muscle the market but it doesn't work (if you've ever tried.)
But when the market seems to be showing you signs that agree with your outlook, its much easier trading.
You can look back to see how we felt on these health calls.
We've been bearish but we'd like the market to agree with us.
June 9th: Waiting to catch a bear
June 16th: Confirmed Bearish
July 13th: Waiting To Catch A bear
July 21st: We may have caught a bear (today).
Let's look at the S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) chart. We love the SPY and feel its the best market proxy, even better than futures.
On July 13th we were not sold that it was a bull market despite the up opens. There wasn't enough for us to say "we're wrong." There was certainly nothing to tell us that we need to jump in and short either. So we watched. Watching is a very healthy trading exercise. Aaah, the beautiful view.



Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS