Sunday, July 24, 2016

Market Weekly: Downgrade Stock Market From Bearish To Our New Wolfish Rating INDEXSP:.INX

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The FOMC meeting Wednesday, we think has risks.
US war risk is increasing.
Russia attacks US gets our official no biggie rating.
The market has been strong post Brexit and post the July 8th jobs number. We think the underlying move in the market is from CB liquidity driving equities up in a comparison trade to bonds. The fundamental outlook however is deteriorating. Add to that there are extraneous factors now building with (ho hom who cares) war. We remain bearish.
This week we have three main global events that will be meaningful to the US.
Key Events This Week
*The FOMC meeting conclusion on Wednesday
*ECB bank stress tests this week
*Bank of Japan policy meeting
*Economic numbers: We don't see any major economic news in the US except the weekly jobless claims numbers.
Key Building Issues This Week
*War escalating in Syria and...against Russia?
*Global calls of desperation by IMF, EU, Japan and US tells us the market his held up by.... not fundamentals, that's for sure.
Let's go one by one.
FOMC Meeting Wednesday
We have written that we see this meeting as a market risk. We believe theWall Street Journal ("WSJ") article last week was a Fed plant. That article said the following which concerns us:
"But the message in their post meeting policy statement could be that the economy is on a more solid footing than it seemed to be when officials last gathered in June, setting the stage for raising interest rates if economic data hold up in the months ahead. Such a message would get the attention of futures markets, which view the chances of the Fed making a move by September as low."




Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS