Thursday, July 7, 2016

Fed Officials Probably Bearish For Friday for S&P 500

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*Based on the minutes "many" Fed officials thought that last month's drop in payrolls was one-time.
*If they are correct and Friday's number jumps back, markets are going down because a rate hike could be back "on the table."
Get ready for many "manys."
Here's how the Fed minutes read, "Many participants observed that, because of transitory factors, such as statistical noise and the effects of a strike in the telecommunications industry, the reported rate of payroll job growth likely understated its underlying pace; howevermany participants thought that the underlying pace had slowed some from that of previous months."
Why Does Elazar Think "Many" Fed Officials Would Short For Friday
After the June 3rd non-farm payroll number slowdown, a rate hike was no longer "on the table."
Thereafter Janet Yellen's rate hike "in the coming months" was also "off the table."
Markets followed through on the upside thereafter due in part to the news.
Here's the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) responding higher soon after that report.


Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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