Sunday, July 3, 2016

Fed Hints: Tightening During Brexit, Stock Market S&P500 Risk

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*Looking closer at Fed balances, the Fed was not supporting markets.
*Their overall balances contracted and are at two year lows.
*If this is the start of the Fed reducing reserves, markets have serious downside.
*We'll have to continue to track it closely.
We've been watching Fed balances for hints for when they start their process of "normalization" to reduce reserves. We've shown these moves closely predict stock market returns. Late Thursday saw a tightening. It's confirmation to Elazar's "Fed Ceiling" call and if it get's worse it will confirm future downside potential.
Let's look at the official numbers.

Recent Data Updated For June 29th shows Fed tightening!
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(Above is the official Federal Reserve Crest to let you know we aren't playing around!)

Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS