Monday, July 11, 2016

Elazar: S&P 500 Weekly Catalysts: Short-Term Sell Rating

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*We were neutral for the week last week.
*This week we think the market can go down.
*Now with the Brexit market burst behind us, we can focus on lots of fun catalysts this week, all important.

We held off from shorting last week. This week we think will be a better opportunity as shorts likely capitulated. That said, the world just became more complicated after that jobs number. That gives us the official Elazar "Not Good" Rating.
As a reminder, here's what we said last week.
"We are neutral this week waiting for a better setup to get short... Although negative catalysts build the bounce off the recent lows needs to work itself out... We see the market capped on the upside and the risk/reward is not good for buying... That said, because of the market momentum, shorting is not clear either... To start the week Elazar's been benched. We expect to get some "at bats" later in the week or next week."
Up 2.4% In 8 Weeks Based On Our Weekly Calls
Here's our weekly performance since we started tracking our calls. Performance is taken from the first S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) open of the week to the close of that week.
WeeklyOpenCloseWeekTotal
Tue, Jul 5SPYNeutral208.95212.65-2.4%
Mon, Jun 27SPYDown201.59209.92-4.1%2.4%
Mon, Jun 20SPYDown208.82203.242.7%6.5%
Mon, Jun 13SPYDown209.36206.521.4%3.8%
Mon, Jun 6SPYDown210.7210.070.3%2.5%
Tue, May 31SPYDown210.56210.280.1%2.2%
Mon, May 23SPYUp205.51210.242.3%2.0%
Mon, May 16SPYDown204.96205.49-0.3%-0.3%

Because we did not pick a side last week, we don't include the SPY performance in our results. That said, if you know how bearish we've been, a "neutral" should be understood to mean we saw a chance for the market to go against us.
This week we expect downside
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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS