Monday, July 18, 2016

Elazar Oil Catalysts For Downside

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*Last week saw multiple signs of high supply and low demand.
*This week Turkey may rattle markets slightly.
*The real Turkey rattle to oil may show up as the dollar strengthens.
Oil was up 1.6% for the week. We continue to expect downside however now that a downtrend has formed led by several key catalysts.
Oil jumped late Friday as there was a coup attempt in Turkey. Now that the coup has been foiled we expect oil to get back to its downtrend.
The key factors we see driving the downtrend of late:
1) Higher production out of US, OPEC and the world
2) Weaker demand than expected with slowing GDP
3) An end to a period of supply disruptions
Higher Production
We reported last week that the US, OPEC and Saudi Arabia ("KSA") came out with higher production levels than expected.
We expect this situation to continue.
OPEC Production Up
Here is the monthly production as estimated by OPEC (Page 61).

AprilMayJune
Iran345735673644
KSA101601024210308
Total OPEC326203259432858





Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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