Sunday, July 10, 2016

Elazar: Jobs, Uh Oh, S&P 500 Short This Week Or Next Week

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*Jobs number was very strong.
*Some of that was a bounce back from the Verizon strike.
*A rate hike may very well be "back on the table".
*We think that is very bad for stocks.
*We were neutral for the week in our Sunday report and think next week will set up to be down, especially after short capitulation today.

Non Farm payrolls saw a big jump. The quick math is to take the last two months and see how it blends into the recent trends. That would be a 149k two-month average which is about inline with recent jobs trend. We think with post-Brexit markets holding and a better jobs numbers, indecisive Fed officials will now swivel and lean to a rate hike back "on the table." We expect that to hit markets over the next week or so.
Here's the chart.
Wow. May was revised down from 38k to 11k. This month jumped to 287k as Verizon workers came back from a strike. We want to smooth the two months and we get a 149k two-month average. That is almost precisely equal to April's 144 (Hmmm). So now three months of exactly the same jobs numbers. That should be fine, ok, not great, not terrible, eh, good (official rating).
But Rate Hike "On The Table"
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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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