Monday, July 11, 2016

Elazar: Absolutely No Risk To S&P 500 Ahead Of Elections Except For This And This, Oh And This

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*The jobs number could lean the Fed to raise rates before the elections according to the Fed "mouthpiece".
*We see other Fed led risks directly ahead of election time.
*Oh one more thing. The fourth year of a president's second term has been the only year that averaged negative stock market returns in 100 years.


After Friday's jobs report the Wall Street Journal ("WSJ"), known to be the mouthpiece of the Fed said this, "June Report Raises Chances Of Rate Increase In September." This confirms our take post jobs numbers except that we did not make a call on timing AHEAD OF ELECTIONS. The Fed has done stranger things. Living will resolution plans are due to the Fed October 1st and are another major pre-Election disturbance. There are others, of course.
This all doesn't help since historically a president's fourth year 2nd term has been the ONLY year that averaged down in the last 100 years. We're not sure exactly which of our famous ratings to apply to that one. Any help?
Fed Could Raise In September
We had pointed out from the FOMC minutes last week that 'many' Fed officials thought the weak May non-farm payrolls number was aberrational. That number took a rate hike off the table.
Fed Chair Yellen had been saying in late May that a rate hike was due "in the coming months."
Soon after, in June, after the off-the cliff weak June 3rd report (going from 144k to 38k month-to-month pre-revision) she changed her tune and pulled the hike.
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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS