Monday, July 18, 2016

Bull Market Checkup: We're Not Sold

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*The move is not yet conclusive.
*Multiple up days in a row do look good but intraday follow through is not there.
*We think despite the breakout risk builds.
*We are looking for cues to short.
(Picture: Bull market checkup: We're not yet sold.)
We recently reviewed what we are looking for to see if this market (NYSEARCA:SPY) has the potential for follow through or if it can turn back down. We want to go through the steps again. So far we don't see strong follow through and we see mixed intraday technicals. Therefore we don't think this is a conclusive bull market move.
Let's review the six steps that help us define the health of the market.
1) The market breaks recent multi-day lows (highs)
2) Closes on its lows (highs)
3) Goes down on bigger volume than it goes up
4) Consistently opens down (up)
5) Do we see the market following through after 11 AM?
6) Can I honestly say, "The market is going down(up)" because I see it going in that direction? (Our most critical indicator)
Here's the chart of the last week's trading. After two Fridays ago strong performance has waned except for the open. We of course respect up opens but, other than that we don't yet have any telltale all-out bull market signs.


Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS