Thursday, July 21, 2016

After Jobless Nums, Look Out, Fed Tightening Talk Coming On FOMC Day Next Week INDEXSP:.INX

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*Jobless claims were very strong. That makes three weeks in a row.
*The Fed likely gives new tightening commentary in their FOMC press conference but it could come in the statement itself also.
*Either way a rate hike would be a major risk to the stock market.

Jobless claims came in very strong once again. That means we have three weeks of very strong data in a row. We showed that the Fed may have leaked to the Wall Street Journal ("WSJ") that the Fed would give new hike commentary next week. We pointed out that the Fed leaked the word "urgency" to describe the need to react to strong numbers. This jobless claims number qualifies as one that could require "urgency."
This is a risk to the stock market (NYSEARCA:SPY).
First let's review today's jobless claims report. Here it is.
A down number means less jobless claims which implies more people are working.
Since May it's been getting stronger (down means less jobLESS claims meaning less people saying they Don't have a job. LESS X Don't = Do).
Here's a longer term view.
This thing is down. Any lower and it's pre-historic-never-been-here before-perfect-universe-nobody-is-claiming-to-be-unemployed-the world-is-perfect-rating. PERFECT, couldn't be better.



Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS