Sunday, June 26, 2016

Stock Market Bottoms End Of 2017

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*Looking purely at demographics there appears to be important effects to stock performance.
*We quantify the peaks and troughs in the birth cycle.
*We'd expect a stock market low around the end of 2017.


(Picture of 1967's top album cover. We think 50 years later we'll be "getting better.")
We're following up on our "This Is Slowing The Economy." In that piece we showed how baby boomers aging are affecting the economy.
In this report we wanted to bottom line it to see how demographics specifically can drive stock prices.
Bottom Line It For Me, What's Demographics Mean For Stocks
We think the boomer and birth cycles are incredibly important to stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY).
First, we base our findings on tracking 50-year-olds. We think they are peak earners and strong spenders. Then we took the peaks and troughs of births and added 50 years to see what we get.
It just so happened that 50 years after peaks and troughs of births coincided with major peaks and troughs for the market.



Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principal especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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