Sunday, June 26, 2016

S&P 500 Weekly Catalysts & Direction: Up 6.5% In 6 Weeks

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*We talk about Brexit spillover.
*Lots of economic data are on tap.
*Lighter trading with July 4th weekend upcoming could mean even more volatility.
*We expect a down week for the SPY.


First, last week we expected a down week for the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) led by Brexit (See our weekly here). We followed that up with multiple reports last week that Brexit was a market risk regardless of the outcome (see "Risk" "Poor risk/reward" "Brexit", "Brexit Sell The News.").
This week we expect the main driver of stock performance to be the carry over effects from Friday's UK decision. We think the market can continue to trade down as investors tally the negative global impact. Add to that are important economic events, of which, of late, have become more dreary and inflation ridden.
Lastly, since next Monday is July 4th, this could be a lower liquidity volatile week, which adds to the story.
We expect another down week.
Here is our performance on weekly calls since we began this report six weeks ago.


Weekly Open Close Week Total
Mon, Jun 27, 16 SPY Down



Mon, Jun 20, 16 SPY Down 208.82 203.24 2.7% 6.5%
Mon, Jun 13, 16 SPY Down 209.36 206.52 1.4% 3.8%
Mon, Jun 6, 16 SPY Down 210.7 210.07 0.3% 2.5%
Tue, May 31, 16 SPY Down 210.56 210.28 0.1% 2.2%
Mon, May 23, 16 SPY Up 205.51 210.24 2.3% 2.0%
Mon, May 16, 16 SPY Down 204.96 205.49 -0.3% -0.3%

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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principle especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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