Wednesday, June 29, 2016

PCE, GDP: Stagflation Confirms Down Cycle To 2017

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The combination of rising inflation and slowing growth continues.
Policy makers say inflation is good.
We say inflation could be a need to raise rates in the face of slowing growth.
We are bearish on SPY, bullish on Gold.
Possible trend to 2018 or 2023.
We've been showing for over a month that inflation is picking up while growth is slowing. Today's PCE, which is the Fed's core inflation measure, and yesterday's GDP confirm this trend.
We think this ends with inflation ("Greenspan Confirms Elazar Inflation Prediction") continuing to rise which will cause market interest rates to rise, squeezing the economy further. This will have a negative impact on the market (NYSEARCA:SPY) but is good for gold (NYSEARCA:GLD).
Here's the latest PCE numbers reported today.....




Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principle especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS