Thursday, June 16, 2016

Can Stock Market Reaction To Fed Days Tell You Anything?

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*We look back through 2011 comparing reaction on Fed days to market follow through.
*We were surprised what we found.
*What do you think it should be?
*Traders make the WRONG move on Fed day?
Hypothesis: Fed days can tell you something.
Conclusion: Not really, and if anything it's opposite.
Traders' Reaction To Fed Day Wrong 62% Of The Time
We were surprised to find that the market reactions to Fed days show people actually traded the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) in the WRONG direction. Over the next month the market traded opposite the Fed day's reaction 62% of the time. Our sample set is almost large enough for significance but 62%, for us, is not enough to bank on but it helps.
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Chaim Siegel has been working with hedge funds and mutual funds as an analyst and PM his entire career. Chaim specializes in earnings and predicts, analyzes and reacts to earnings and earnings events as well as developing current company stories with a hedge fund perspective. If you want his analysis real time sign up to the right for real time email alerts. #in, $spy, $qqq, $iwm, $vxx, $ycs, $fxe, $EUO, $YCS, ^GSPC, INDEXSP:.INX, #elazaradvisorsllc, CME Globex: ES Disclosure: These trades can lose you money and principle especially when using leverage BY USING THIS SITE YOU AGREE TO TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OUTCOMES AND LOSSES AND HOLD BESTIDEAS, ITS CONTRIBUTORS AND ELAZAR ADVISORS, LLC HARMLESS

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